Implications

Having proposed arguments for and against the existence of ET, there still remains the question of Humanity’s response to the whole idea of contact. Both the possibility of contact with a (probably) more advanced intelligence, and the possibility that we are alone in the galaxy have profound implications, both philosophically and culturally. Although current SETI projects have revealed no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial civilisations, there is a widespread perception that, not only is the Universe teeming with advanced lifeforms, but that we have already been contacted to an extreme degree by at least one, if not more of these alien races. The evidence for this viewpoint is based upon reports of advanced technological craft and their occupants flitting freely around Earth’s skies.

The UFO phenomenon

Mysterious craft and alien visitors have been reported since 1896 and the UFO phenomenon has embedded itself firmly in human consciousness since the classic description by the airline pilot Kenneth Arnold in 1952 when he described a series of "saucer" shaped craft appearing to "skip" over the Cascade mountains. In fact a 1979 Gallup poll in Britain indicated that 61% of the population believe in the probable or definite existence of UFOs (80% of people under 26). Since then the number has risen and now a significant number American citizens believe their government has examples in its possession at the top secret airforce base known as Area 51. Also clear is that the complexity of the phenomenon has increased over the last 40 years from sightings of lights in the sky through mechanical craft and their occupants to alien encounters and now alien abductions. There are also a host of "related" occurrences e.g. poltergeists, crop circles, cattle mutilations, anthropoid creatures, lake monsters etc.

The theories of the origin of the UFO phenomenon can be divided into the following categories:

• the UFOs and aliens are from outer space

• the UFOs and aliens are from an alternative Earth in a parallel dimension

• the UFOs and aliens are from our future

• the UFOs and aliens are from inside the Earth (which is hollow and home to refugees from the lost continent of Atlantis)

• the UFOs are due to natural geological & atmospheric phenomena (marsh gas, piezo-electric effects) or man-made phenomena (weather balloons, stealth bombers) unrelated to the sighting of aliens

• the aliens are due to natural biological and psychological phenomena (sleep paralysis, migraine related trance states, false memory syndrome) unrelated to the sighting of UFOs

• any combination of the above, preferably involving global conspiracies which date back to the time of the Atlantean Empire

Applying Occam’s razor, we should discount the simplest explanations first, and indeed a very high number of experiences can be attributed to misidentifications of natural phenomena. Once this filter has been applied there is a small percentage of reports that require more imaginative explanation.

From a biological standpoint, the most plausible theory is a combination of natural phenomena coupled with psychological states that we are only beginning to investigate. The great psychologist C.G.Jung recognised the importance of the phenomenon enough to write a tome on it – he believed that C^20th man was able to exteriorise a wish-fulfilment to be saved from technological disaster by benign guardians from other worlds. The investigation of states akin to sleep paralysis has been undertaken recently by Dr Susan Blackmore at UWE with results that correlate well with many of the effects traditionally reported by abductees. Parallel Earth’s and the future come a close second (ignoring the physics of such claims and analysing them strictly on the basis of biology). The reason for preferring these theories is the anatomy of the aliens: Taking a popular guide, The UFO Spotters Handbook as source, of the 49 or so different "species" of aliens described, 37 are very close to human in shape (7 of the remaining 12 are "robots", so cannot be said to have a biology).

To duplicate human anatomy, our aliens would have had to duplicate many, many events in human evolution. For instance:

1. the fish that crawled out onto land would have to have 2 sets of paired fins to produce a quadrupedal amphibian, rather than say 6 or 8
2. early small ground dwelling shrew-like creatures would have to give rise to a tree-living creature with a lot of primate characteristics (rather than say squirrel-like ones or chameleon-like ones which would not lead to the same kind of grasping hand)
3. one branch of the primates would have to lose their tails (none of the humanoid aliens have a tail) and learn to swing about under branches (this is typical ape locomotion and gives humans a mobile enough shoulder joint to - amongst other things - throw stones and spears, scratch between their shoulder blades and let their arms hang by their sides)
4. some of the apes would have to come down out of the trees and develop a bipedal stance

The other vertebrates on Earth which have developed bipedalism are far more non-human in appearance than most aliens reported from UFO visitors: birds, kangaroos, dinosaurs such as Tyrannosaurus Rex for instance. It is notable that all of the above kept their tails and have limbs which have a different arrangement of the joints from humans.

It is also remarkable that the alien visitors keep up with fashion and current trends in human technology. Cigar shaped "airships" were reported in the late 19^th century, but saucers did not become popular until the 1940’s. Early UFOs are often described as being covered in rivets. Later the aliens adopted stylish seamless 1950’s chrome, and later still the Christmas tree lights image shown in Close Encounters of the Third Kind became prevalent.

Different aliens also have different preferences for where and when they visit - most of the aliens sighted in the USA in the 1950’s were tall, blond and friendly, whilst those visiting France in the same period were short and aggressive. Cute little robots were far more frequently reported as sightings after the release of Star Wars. Despite reports of visits since 1896, none of the aliens wanted to with humans until 1957.

Dave Langford’s spoof UFO book An Account of a Meeting with Denizens of Another World, 1871 (written as if by "William Robert Loosley") has been quoted as fact in subsequent UFO literature. The alien visitors themselves like to bend the truth - many of the early visitors claimed to have come from Mars, Venus or the Moon and described a thriving ecology there.

The very anthropocentric nature of reported activity would indicate a terrestrial, indeed a human component. One thing to be born in mind is that the number of authentic sightings backed up by reliable witnesses is vanishingly small, and none of these seem to be reproducible for scientific scrutiny. Despite the capture of far rarer events (plane crashes, meteors grazing the atmosphere, earthquake lights etc.) on film and movie, no reliable footage of a UFO and its occupants has come to light. Robert Scheaffer has termed this a "jealous phenomenon". The basic question of what constitutes a reliable witness is a key issue in the acceptance of many of these reports and it is clear that there is no objective measure in such circumstances, despite the social standing and training of the witness. What is significant is that very few amateur and professional astronomers submit UFO reports. From a statistician’s point of view it is puzzling that the ratio of IFO/UFO reports remains fairly constant even though the total number of reports can vary widely from year to year – especially during a "flap year". One would expect the signal to noise ratio to go up in a period of high UFO activity and down when the aliens are having a quiet year, but to have three times as many misidentifications of Venus at the same time that there are three times as many unexplained sightings seems remarkable – as if the aliens were able to match expected misidentification rates in advance!

Some sceptics regard this as possible only if the actual signal to noise ratio is zero, and the unexplainable residue is just gross misperception and misreporting.

To conclude a brief analysis of a very complex issue, what is definite is the existence of a social phenomenon that continues to shape Western thought and expectation. Any attempt to ignore this or dismiss it as unimportant is misguided. Whether or not this phenomenon has any external cause is still open to debate and depends on the collection of verifiable scientific evidence. In the light of our current understanding of biology and astronomy, together with our rational analysis of communications and contact strategies that we would apply, the UFO phenomenon seems to fly in the face of logic as an example of an extraterrestrial visitation.

Religious and Philosophical Issues

The former of these two themes has been explored extensively by science fiction writers, film and TV producers and the media in general over the last 50 years with the result that there is a highly emotional attachment in certain quarters to a quasi-religious belief in ET. In many cases this is totally at odds with realistic expectations.

It is very interesting to note that belief in ET and religious belief have traditionally been one and the same in the past, since the Heavens have been the domain of otherworldly beings - supernatural or religious entities. It is only recently that a separation has taken place between aliens and angels. It is then, not entirely surprising that a religious undercurrent pervades the whole question of ETI, and indeed, many of the descriptions of close encounters have a definite spiritual dimension and share similarities with mystical experiences, both personal and extended (miracles at Fatima etc.) The Bible has descriptions of events that, although interpreted within the religious context, are nevertheless strikingly similar to modern UFO reports (Ezekial’s "wheels of fire"). Paul Davies in Are We Alone?, suggests that the sense of religious quest may extend even to the atheistic scientists driving SETI. Science Fiction has explored this phenomenon whereby the concept of a supervisory deity is replaced with alien mediators, who play the traditional role of angels in showing the way towards true enlightenment i.e. ultimate knowledge of the Universe. There are Bunyenesque elements in a number of books and films dealing with ETI which echo an archetypal requirement for guidance and advancement for ourselves and our species, coupled with a desperate search for meaning. Fred Hoyle in his book Intelligent Universe, proposes that life was designed and dispersed throughout the Universe and that it is cultivated and monitored by intelligent civilisations, themselves subordinate to a timeless superintelligence responsible for the Grand Design and life itself. Davies also points out that science sprouted from theology, and that scientists whether atheists or theists, whether they believe in alien intelligence or not, are all accepting an essentially theological world view.

What exactly would it mean to orthodox religion to discover that human beings are not the only sentient beings in the Universe?

Firstly, it would be very difficult to sustain the idea that we are a miraculous product. It also casts doubt on the divine origin for consciousness and intelligence. Just one detection would imply the possibility of many more intelligences.

In 1929 the Bishop of Birmingham, Earnest Barnes was of the opinion that God created the Universe as a basis for higher consciousness and that this was best served by a multiplicity of inhabited worlds. The great cosmologist E.A.Milne shared the same opinion of a multitude of inhabited worlds, with many of these beings at a higher state of advancement than our own. He also identified a basic problem regarding the Incarnation. Was this a unique event, or does every planet have its own? If one supposes that there is only one Son of God, then that straight away puts us in an uncomfortably unique position again.

E.L.Mascall stated that it was not necessary to know about the Redemption for salvation, and that would preclude the existence of a great many saviours – although he did emphasise that Christ was God made Man, therefore specifically directed to our species and not altogether relevant to other species.

Another theological problem relates to the state of spiritual advancement of any ETI. If God works through the historical process to refine humanity, and God only realises himself through evolutionary progress, the fact that far across the galaxy there are races who have evolved to such splendour and fullness of existence means there can be little need for progress on Earth. There is a good chance that we might be one of the most spiritually inferior races in the galaxy! If this is so, then we will have a learn from any ETI, and their religion might well displace many of the orthodoxies here on Earth.

Philosophically there is the question of consciousness. We might make contact with a machine intelligence which has all the attributes of biological consciousness and will force a redefinition of the divine nature of that state. It is important that when we do make contact, we establish whether we are talking to something organic, mechanical or a hybrid.

The Detection of a Signal

Views of SETI are confused by public perceptions that physical contact between human and ETI cultures must inevitably be involved. Cultural contacts in history have had unfortunate outcomes for many people, prompting negative analogies with SETI. In contrast to prevailing impressions, however, some cultural contacts have resulted in outcomes in which all parties benefited. In particular, entry of Arab knowledge to medieval Europe, with consequent flowering of European scholarship and subsequent discovery is notable.

A popular belief is that the discovery of ETI would cause widespread shock and panic, followed by social disintegration. Orson Welles famous broadcast of H.G.Wells’ War of the Worlds on American radio in 1938 is often cited as proof of this (many citizens left their houses, and one actually committed suicide rather than be captured by Martians). The fact is that this was a dramatic production in the alarmist tradition and is as far removed from any potential "first contact" as it is possible to be. There is no shortage of literature exploring the extraordinary lengths that scientists and government officials would go to in order to protect us from such dangerous knowledge – fertile ground for every conspiracy theory in the book! The very idea that only politicians and scientists are qualified to shoulder the burden of this knowledge is against reason – any signal detected would be for all mankind. There are certain dangers associated with the dissemination of such knowledge, and a working party convened as part of NASA’s HRMS has considered these in detail, and evolved a series of recommendations that , hopefully, would be adhered to internationally.

The document has this to say:

For several centuries people have accepted the possibility that other worlds house other intelligent beings. Whereas many have been relatively indifferent to this idea, others have sorted themselves into "millennial" and "catastrophist" camps, respectively espousing positive or negative views of the implications of ETI existence. Both views have continued to attract adherents.

Reactions to a detection (or non-detection) can range from indifference through mild positive or negative curiosity, through millennial enthusiasm or catastrophist anxiety, to full scale pronoia or paranoia. Most individual reactions to an announcement would include active expanded searches for additional information, with significant coalescences of like-minded individuals in support (or opposition) groups. A few reactions would probably be irrationally extreme or even violent.

Education is identified as a factor that correlates with positive attitudes toward SETI. Research is recommended that enables us to better understand factors that underlie various responses and to identify activities that increase the likelihood that responses will be well-informed and even positive. One promising fact-finding technique is to pose specific alternative ETI detection scenarios, then poll the public on likely responses to those scenarios.

Recommendations.

• Many cultures have traditions of depicting strangers, aliens, and ETI, and have different emotional responses to specific terms used within those traditions. Analysing these terms (and perhaps coining new ones) will enable SETI participants to anticipate and pre-empt possible negative responses by adopting accurate language that is free of unexpected shadings of value. There is need for research on popular public visions, perceptions, and images of ETI's, and on cultural conceptions of science and technology.

• The preliminary approach that we have adopted in this Report identifies separate variables that motivate behaviour, but does not specify the ways in which interactions among the variables influence behaviour. Studies are needed to learn how these various elements interact.

• We should try to identify and clarify the responses of various peoples to the Apollo and Viking missions (activities that were remotely analogous to NASA's HRMS research).

• We should identify groups with unusual abilities to affect policy whose members might require better information about SETI. Can better understanding of SETI encourage their members to view these endeavours positively (or more positively)?

• SETI researchers (or their designees) should identify individual and institutional responses that are viewed by the public as positive and achievable in the event of a signal detection, then participate in programs of education and information that will enable people to respond in those ways.

• SETI researchers or their designees should make greater use of popular media, including movies, computer games, and popular music, to present SETI and ETI themes. These avenues could greatly increase public interest and exposure.

• SETI researchers should identify, assist, and inform national and international organisations concerned with SETI-related issues.

• SETI researchers should affiliate with "soft" science researchers through such bodies as the World Ethnographic Union. These relationships could bring relevant questions of behaviour to the attention of those workers, and draw upon multiple disciplinary resources for understanding those variables whose effects on human reactions are unclear.

• The creation of a panel of expert behavioural scientists as a "reaction team" should be considered. Such a team should be available for advice and help in situations where information about an ETI signal seems to cause unusual disruption of normal patterns of life.

• Means should be devised for including the perspectives and inputs of members of non-American, non-white societies in the future.

Great care must be taken that methodological assumptions are not made into metaphysical assumptions in describing SETI activities. We should not assume, as a matter of dogma, that ETI civilisations are anxious to communicate with us, nor that all human beings are anxious to communicate with them. Many organised entities are likely to try to use news of an ETI detection in ways that serve their purposes. These include promotion of claims of a "cover-up" of information about the detection, advocacy of increased aerospace research, manoeuvres to manipulate the release of information about the find for political benefit, and efforts to control or suppress the release of information. Efforts to suppress or control information are unlikely to succeed, given the widespread SETI verification and data-sharing network and the likely ability of most nations to "tune in" an ETI source with modest equipment.

Government bodies will need to respond to news of an ETI detection. Most have no policy or mechanisms in place for responses, and could benefit from discussion now of possible actions to be taken in the event. One existing agreement on actions to be taken by SETI researchers in the event of a detection is widely endorsed. However, it has no legal status or government signatories at present.

Because existing institutions, processes, and agreements generally neglect the possibility of an ETI detection, much remains to be done to prepare for policy responses to a detection. The work could be addressed in two broad categories: first begin the educational and informational processes necessary to prepare government bodies and international institutions most likely to be affected by an ETI detection, and second begin establishing procedures and mechanisms similar to those outlined in this chapter, to make humankind's responses to detection more effective.

Recommendations

• NASA should encourage establishment of post-detection notification processes within and among concerned national governments and inter-governmental bodies identified by this report; NASA should clarify the its own policy and procedures for public dissemination of information about the detection;

• In accordance with established diplomatic procedures, NASA should brief national governments and international organisations about the Microwave Survey project and the implications of detection;

• NASA should conduct further analyses of the political consequences of detection;

• In accordance with established diplomatic procedures, NASA should work with governments and international organisations to develop procedures within international organisations for responses to detection;

• NASA should broaden international participation in SETI through training and technical assistance.

News media will be the source of information for most people during a detection event. Reliable reporting and minimisation of sensational mistaken misrepresentations are assured if SETI researchers follow procedures used during the Viking (and similar) missions; however some misrepresentation is inevitable given the lack of training in science of most reporters. One worrisome dimension of reportage is the likelihood that "candidate signals"-- promising but unconfirmed radio bursts -- will be prematurely or mistakenly reported as genuine signals from ETI's. These repeated "false alarms" can negatively affect public perceptions of science and the Microwave Survey project.

Entertainment media delve into the fantastic and do not necessarily convey accurate SETI-related imagery to the public. For example, films and novels have created a widespread public impression that interstellar travel is easy, and that physical encounters between humanity and ETI's could become commonplace. The responses of the entertainment media to an ETI detection are not easy to predict; controversy or widespread perception of "reality" following a detection might unexpectedly mute, rather than stimulate, their treatment of ETI-related subjects. Tabloid media will certainly misrepresent all stories and cannot be persuaded to do otherwise. Regular reporting of "no detection" is required, in part to forestall tabloid (and other) stories about "suppression of a discovery."

Both entertainment and news media reflect and shape the emotional backdrop of nations and the world, which in turn is likely to tilt public reactions to a detection in "anxious" or "enthusiastic" directions.

Recommendations:

• Prior to a possible detection, NASA researchers should find a timely and routine way of keeping news media (and through them, the public) informed about any candidate signals checked and discarded, or checked and still under scrutiny;

• During the pre-detection interval, Microwave Survey news releases should regularly remind the public that dispute and debate among scientists is a normal feature of science, and that such should be expected if an ETI detection in announced;

• NASA should devise a formal mechanism for release of information to the media, drawing heavily upon the Viking experience;

• Studies of historic science stories that have resemblance to an ETI announcement should be conducted for insights on which communications and reports were effective, which were not, and how the public responded.

• Microwave Survey researchers should devise a way of regularly reporting the absence of detected signals for the part of the search that precedes a genuine detection, and of reporting other (unanticipated) astronomical discoveries resulting from the project;

• NASA should designate a standby team of scientists, journalists, and others who will respond to exaggerated or erroneous reports, where the latter appear to be confusing the public;

• NASA researchers should devise a way of regularly reminding the public that "false alarms" (detections of transient radio noise or "signals" from human sources) will be a frequent and ongoing result of the HRMS research.

• Microwave Survey researchers should establish liaison with the entertainment industry, both to educate key media artists and producers and for staff to learn about communicating through popular forms. Briefing materials made available to news and information media should also be made available to entertainment media people. HRMS/NASA technical assistance might be made available during film and television productions of relevance to SETI.

• HRMS researchers should consider encouraging a filmmaker to develop a major feature about SETI and receipt of an ETI signal in a responsible dramatic way.

• Microwave Survey researchers should consider offering a non-technical seminar for producers, screenwriters, television executives and programmers to demonstrate how the HRMS works and what actual detection scenarios might be like.

• NASA should regularly invite science fiction writers to briefings for the press and VIP's, as JPL started to do with later Voyager flyby's.

• NASA should invite representatives from major entertainment media to serve on committees that plan the HRMS's public relations/public information efforts.

• A summary should be compiled of scenarios to ETI detection as envisioned by works of science fiction.

Should we answer?

Detecting a signal from an extraterrestrial civilisation would raise an important question - should we humans send a message back to the civilisation that we have detected, a "response from Earth"?

The nature of the discussion would be guided by whether the ETI transmission was intended for us or was overheard in passing, whether it was information-rich or information-poor, "friendly" or "hostile" in tone, and by other considerations.

This issue also has been examined by a number of interested persons during recent years, notably in the SETI Committee of the International Academy of Astronautics. Proposals to send messages to attract the attention of other civilisations we have not yet detected (sometimes called "active SETI") raise essentially the same question.

Principle 8 of the Declaration of Principles Concerning Activities Following the Detection of Extraterrestrial Intelligence states that

"No response to a signal or other evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence should be sent until appropriate international consultations have taken place. The procedures for such consultations will be the subject of a separate agreement, declaration, or arrangement."

As a starting point for discussion, the draft agreement or declaration might include the following basic principles:

1. The decision on whether or not to send a message to extraterrestrial intelligence should be made by an appropriate international body, broadly representative of Humankind.

2. If a decision is made to send a message to extraterrestrial intelligence, it should be sent on behalf of all Humankind, rather than from individual States or groups.

3. The content of such a message should be developed through an appropriate international process, reflecting a broad consensus.